Will we see a blizzard this Sunday in Buffalo, or will it just be a little cold for everyone on the field?
Weather is expected to play a factor in this week's game, but if the Cleveland Browns follow the obvious keys to the game and situations they can take advantage of, it is hard to imagine them losing to the 2-10 Buffalo Bills.
Here are some notes heading into the game, followed by my positional breakdown and prediction for the game:
| Pos | Adv | Reason |
| QB |  |
After the season is over, when I look back to the 2010-2011 season, the thing that will stand out with Buffalo to me is the wise decision to demote and then cut former starter Trent Edwards early in the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has sort of slowed down as of late in terms of touchdowns thrown per game, but he's a smart quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over a lot. A big concern I have is his mobility. If Chad Henne was able to run for a first down or two, Fitzpatrick will do the same. Jake Delhomme has a good game for his standards last week, but hopefully he'll have to worry more about handing the ball off on Sunday given Buffalo's run defense. |
| RB |  |
When you look at Fred Jackson's career numbers, it's amazing that the Bills never seem to name him their starting running back at the beginning of the season. In his past four seasons, his YPC numbers have looked like this: 5.2 in 2007, 4.4 in 2008, 4.5 in 2009, and 4.4 in 2010. The reason I give Cleveland the edge here is because I don't think the Bills are committed to the run or do particularly well against defenses that aren't terrible versus the run. In 8 of his 12 games this season, Jackson has had 12 carries or less. If the Bills commit to pounding the football in harsh weather conditions, Mike Bell is bound to get some carries too. |
| WR TE |
|
If I had separate categories for wide receiver and tight end, Cleveland would get the advantage at tight end. In fact, as receivers, here is a clue for Cleveland defenders: don't worry about covering the tight ends. Buffalo's starter, David Martin, has 5 catches for 30 yards this season. Although Steve Johnson had a cringe-worthy drop against the Steelers a couple of weeks ago, he has shown to be a playmaker and has the confidence to want to will his team to victory. To go along with him and the Bills not using a tight end, Buffalo features Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, and David Nelson at receiver. |
| OL | |
The Browns are still vulnerable on the right side of their offensive line and have struggled to run the ball there since Floyd Womack moved back to right guard. Still, the weakness on the right side doesn't compare to what the Bills are facing, and the Browns' offensive line performs better against teams that operate a 3-4 defense. Center: The Bills lost their top two centers in Week 13 to injury. That means starting RG Eric Wood will make his first career start at center, leaving a void at right guard. Right Guard: Cordaro Howard, an backup undrafted rookie tackle, will make his first start at the right guard position. He will platoon with Ed Wang, a rookie fifth round pick with no starting experience. Those are the two weakest positions for Buffalo in terms of depth. Their right tackle has limited experience too though, and starting left tackle Demetrius Bell is battling a knee injury. Left guard Andy Levitre seems to be in the best of shape. |
| DL | |
Kyle Williams, the Bills' nose tackle, could be in line for a trip to the Pro Bowl with the way he has been playing. He was the reason the Bills' defense defended the Steelers well a couple of weeks ago. Buffalo isn't as strong across the rest of the defensive line, especially after starting defensive end Dwan Edwards was placed on the injured reserve last week. Shaun Rogers tore it up against Miami last week and will be looking to feast on Buffalo's patchwork offensive line. |
| LB | |
Buffalo's unit of linebackers has been gashed on the ground. Last year's first-round pick Aaron Maybin is a backup and appears to be on his way to being deemed a bust. Six teams have run for over 200 yards against Buffalo, and they are worst in the league at defending the rush. Cleveland's linebackers tackled better last week, but this week they might try to be a little more aggressive when it comes to rushing the passer. We'll see if Marcus Benard, Matt Roth, and David Bowens are in for big games or not. It might ne a nice curveball to have Jason Trusnik come in and go on surprise blitzes. The tight ends don't receive many passes, so that is one less responsibility for the unit. |
| DB | |
I hope the Browns keep Joe Haden in the starting lineup, because Cleveland's secondary has played much better since Eric Wright's injury. With that said, Wright could be a key contributor this week as the No. 3 or No. 4 cornerback since Buffalo does not use a receiving tight end in their packages much. Buffalo's secondary is not a weakness like their linebacking unit is. They have forced only 8 interceptions this season though, 4 of which came last week against the Minnesota Vikings. If Cleveland runs the ball so much, there should be some holes in the secondary where defenders try to come up and stop the run. |
| ST |  |
Reggie Hodges and Brian Moorman both get the job done for their teams and can pin the ball inside the 20. If the weather is bad, both punters could play a big role in determining field position. Joshua Cribbs' status as an effective returner remains in question given his toe situation. The Bills are good at stopping returns, and C.J. Spiller has given Buffalo a spark on kick returns. |
It's usually tough to predict the score of a game when the weather conditions play a factor, but it isn't difficult for me to predict the final outcome given Buffalo's patchwork offensive line and terrible run defense.
FINAL PREDICTION: Cleveland Browns 28, Buffalo Bills 14.
CHRIS' RECORD IN PICKING BROWNS GAMES: 7-5
CHRIS' OVERALL NFL PREDICTIONS RECORD: 120-72
0 recs | 34 comments
Mangini talked about Jaime Mitchell during his Friday press conference. He said he’s been working at DE.
golanbatrac - December 11, 2010
Ah, thanks for that little nugget. I assume he was brought up because a reporter asked him about Mitchell?
Chris Pokorny - December 11, 2010
Yeah. Mangini talked about Mitchell needing to find a role on the team and needing to find a way to contribute on special teams, and then mentioned that he had been working at DE rather than at linebacker.
golanbatrac - December 12, 2010
two words (you listening, Daballs?):
VICKERS.
discoinferno083 - December 11, 2010
Do you think that when McCoy is fully healthy he’ll get the start over Delhomme assuming he wins this week?
Luke C - December 11, 2010
If McCoy is fully healthy, he HAS to get the start even if Delhomme doesn’t throw a Delhomme.
Simmsinns - December 11, 2010
Do you think Mangini will though 3 straight wins why would he change it
Luke C - December 11, 2010
I’m honestly not to sure. I am, however, absolutely convinced that a 100% healthy Colt McCoy is a must start come Week 15, if that’s the case.
I’m just really hoping Mangini agrees, also really hoping for McCoy to get healthy.
Simmsinns - December 11, 2010
this will be interesting to watch.
either way, i’m sure he won’t say.
Since Eric is oh so tricky like that.
discoinferno083 - December 11, 2010
As soon as McCoy is healthy (say 95% / 100%) they will almost certainly start him. Holmgren and company need to see more of him (and ideally see him perform in cold weather games) before the 2011 draft. Holmgren has said as much in recent interviews.
burntorangeandbrown - December 12, 2010
Agreed. The most important thing is getting as much game tape on Colt as possible. I’m sure Holmgren is thinking this- couple more games showing composure & leadership (no doubt he can throw) & we can skip QB in the draft.
LondonBrown - December 12, 2010
Chris?
Nice read. One comment though.
With windy snowy conditions, the QB skill set will be limited to hand offs and short passes, which should make it a push between Delhomme and Fitzpatrick and the Browns should own 6 of the 7 position break downs you talked about.
I see it as the 4th straight Browns win over BUF, 17-6!
rickyfeacher - December 12, 2010
8:45am, on my way to Buffalo. I think I’m gonna get a wet ass today…
Dawg Nuts - December 12, 2010 via mobile
Thanks for the write up Chris but 6 TDs? In that weather? With those teams? Anyway, if Fitzpatrick is the best QB on the field I think our beloved Browns will take one on the chin. They have more explosive talent on offense, and have shored up the D a little lately.
realmccoy - December 12, 2010
I anticipate the running games doing a lot of good work on both sides.
Chris Pokorny - December 12, 2010
Good analysis and good prediction on Final score. This is the type of team the Browns could actually over power on both sides of the ball. If the Browns can stay away from giving up the big play on defense, and protect the ball on offense, I think we may get a 10 point victory or more. Really liked the break down Chris!
champion64 - December 12, 2010
My aunt told me it’s snowing in Cleveland. Not to piss you guys off, but it will be 72 degrees today here in Oceanside, CA. :)
Brownie's Year - December 12, 2010
I’m not in Cleveland, I’m in North Carolina. But you did succeed in pissing me off.
burntorangeandbrown - December 12, 2010
it’s about 45 degrees and raining downtown. last week we got about a foot all in one day, but it’s warmed up this weekend.
notthatnoise - December 12, 2010
That’s probably what she ment. I was drunk last night when I called her.
Brownie's Year - December 12, 2010
it is supposed to snow tonight.
bross09 - December 13, 2010
Rain in Toronto. So a warm day :-/
LondonBrown - December 12, 2010
My initial impulse was to not render advice on how to win this week, because if we win, we´re pushing them up a few notches in the draft order, and if we lose we´re done for the season and will end up praying to spoil our conference opponents chances.
I´ve changed my mind, because you don´t sink to your detractors level. I´ve been committed to supporting this team since around training camp 2009, even though somewhere along the line, I had to realize it will be only one of the teams I favor. I´m still looking for my cup of tea somewhere.
I come from a winning program, and I despise losing, even though we learned how to do that in style too. It´s hard for me to be enthusiastic about losing, just so you can run your own negatives. Guys around here basically announced prior to the season, that they will adjust and adapt to their prognosis of another losing season, to me that´s borderline criminal. We have a smart head coach, we have awesome fans, we had a great draft, and a team as old and storied as the Browns has a lot of resources to procure talent through other channels. My goal for this team was to get great players and then try to win by taking it, not negotiating play-calling, yardage and scoring, or what was once so cleverly termed “complementary football” on this site.
I feel we´ve short changed ourselves in every regard. We had great 4-3 personnel, although I´m against a 4-3. We had great 3-4 linebackers in camp, but we went with the behemoths. Anyone that steps it up is not reimbursed financially, there is no reward culture. It´s like we´ve quaintly aligned ourselves with the tougher aspects of the recession conformity requirements of the pervasive politics of social instigation, the negative award culture in the artificial individual versus peerage backdrop. It´s like that “how low can you go” video, only we all know the musician was mainly advocating the female protagonists in the video to , well, see how low they can go with their tush.
The enthusiasm per programatic is tiresome and insulting.
How can you make a spectacle out of flirting with your own worst propensities, and dispensing normal human goodness as if it was manna from heaven? As if there was some authority or official quantity in the end waiting to pat you on the back, or like you could handpick from the hierarchy regarding your final judgement?
Your prediction, slash, prophecies towards the statistical probability. Driven by a supposedly challengeable professional reputation, when you simply procur your own results, making discussion irrelevant in the end, as if we all should have read the script.
Let me catch my breath here.
mooncamping - December 12, 2010
Who on here roots for us to lose? I’ll go to their house with a sock filled with pennies.
Brownie's Year - December 12, 2010
Wait, let him catch his breath. Sounds like he’s not done yet…
burntorangeandbrown - December 12, 2010
I am now done.
mooncamping - December 12, 2010
Villeslgr - December 12, 2010
Oh. Well, that would be a negatory regarding everything I have just said, then. If I am responsible for your behavior, you are not responsible towards my assessments.
mooncamping - December 12, 2010
Ah, c’mon moon. I’m just messing around.
Brownie's Year - December 12, 2010
Here is my challenge for this game:
-Put the best 3-4 players on the field.
-Let them play without perfunctory requirements.
-Use the three tiered approach, and let THEM decide where they need to be.
-Coaching supercedes Coordination. The coaching took place in training.
-A 240 lbs hillbilly is not a single back, even if he is awesome.
-Sloppy seconds from Carolina, Delhomme,
-Our offense can use any play from the playbook at any time.
-There are no financial reglementations regarding our players ability to perform to the utmost of their ability.
-If I bench a player, I´m benching him, and not his contract versus the cap. That is, it is the risk of the club, not the coach´s or the player´s.
-We all have honest and earnest intentions and motivations toward the team and the players.
-If the team loses, and I´m a supporter, you might assume, I have lost to a certain degree.
ect…you know me
mooncamping - December 12, 2010
you remind me of that guy in fable 2 with a thesaurus.
notthatnoise - December 12, 2010
Sorry. Not a gamester. According to the wiki it´s a pretty cool setting though. What do I do?
mooncamping - December 13, 2010
A new guy at center for Buffalo and foul weather to boot? This bodes very well for the Browns. I expect we may see a few false starts and some sloppy snaps.
JustBob - December 12, 2010
Stat of the day: The 2010 Cleveland Browns are 0-2 in games golanbatrac hasn’t been able to watch.
golanbatrac - December 12, 2010
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Dawgs By Nature to post a comment.