Jacksonville comes into tomorrow's game at 5-4. The Browns still haven't faced a team under .500 at the time of the game. That said, after an incredibly difficult portion of their schedule (Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New England, New York Jets), a near-average opponent should seem like a huge step down in competition. I don't think it is that much of a stretch to say that the last 5 games the Browns have played have been against the 5 best teams in the league. Jacksonville is a nice team, but they aren't in that conversation. The Browns held their own, going 2-3 in that stretch.
So how will the Browns do against someone more equal in quality? Against similarly average-y teams to start the year, the Browns fell in heartbreakers to Kansas City and Tampa Bay. The Browns look like a better team with more of an identity now. But let's see what the numbers say about Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
When the Jaguars have the ball
The Jags' offense is quite average, 16th in the league in weighted DVOA. They are 12th in passing (28% above average) and 17th in rushing (-2% DVOA). The Browns defense is 20th in the league overall with a 4.6% DVOA (i.e. 4.6% worse than average).
Jones-Drew is a tough and impressive running back. And he has had an ok year by his standards. His DVOA is just 1.5% on a per play basis, but he does get the ball a lot (3rd in the league in rushes- behind only Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson). That leads to him having the 13th most valuable season as a running back so far (82 DYAR) as he only has found the end zone 3 times and has a meh success rate of 47% (19th in the league). The Browns rush defense is 10th in the league and 10% better than average.
David Garrard has missed some time due to injury this season, but he is healthy now and is playing very well. In his last two games he has had 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 600 YDs, on just about 50 attempts and a completion percentage near 80%. Wow. The main targets for Garrard include two underrated wideouts. Mike Thomas is small, but has great hands and can make some big plays. His DVOA is 31.3%, good for 4th in the league! He has a catch rate (75%!) better than elite slot guys like Wes Welker and averages about as much per catch as big name #1 WRs like Roddy White and Anquan Boldin. On the other side of the field, Mike Sims-Walker is no slouch, with a DVOA of 12.8%. Sims-Walker has had 56 targets, Thomas has 55. Garrard is spreading the ball around to talented WRs. Jones-Drew is also a major part of the Jags' passing offense, with a 38% DVOA as a RB-pass catcher. Also lookout for TE Mercedes Lewis (30 catches, 7 TDs, 15.5% DVOA). The Browns have continued to struggle against the pass, over 14% worse than average, 21st in the league. While they should be able to contain Jones-Drew out of the backfield (8th in defending passes to RBs), they are 31st against #1 WRs and below average against #2s and TEs.
When the Browns have the ball
Are you sitting down? Good. Because this might make you dizzy: the Browns are an above-average offensive football team (8.3% weighted DVOA, 15th). Running (1.1% DVOA, 13th) and passing (20.8%, 17th). Jacksonville is not a good defensive team, 28th in the league, 22% worse than average. Let's score.
The Browns offense still centers around Peyton Hillis. Despite a very concerning 5 fumbles, Peyton Hillis ranks 4th in DVOA (15.3%) and DYAR. He has 8 rushing TDs, 3rd in the league. His success rate is an amazing 60%, first in the league. Plus, he is the 7th most valuable RB pass-catcher. Peyton Hillis is having a Pro Bowl season, folks. The Jaguars are 29th against the run with a 4.5% DVOA. Look for the Browns to rely on Hillis a lot this game.
The Jaguars stink against the pass, 37% worse than average, 28th in the league. But they do defend passes to RBs very, very well. 2nd in the league in that category. They are about average against TEs. We need some production out of Mohammed Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie, and Chansi Stuckey. I still only have one foot on the "Colt McCoy as the QB of the future" bandwagon. But there has been a lot of crappy backup and 3rd string QBs playing around the league this year and the Browns have been in that situation before. Not this year. McCoy is already the 24th most valuable QB in DYAR and 12th best on a per-play basis at 20.8% DVOA. Just ahead of Seneca Wallace. McCoy has also been effective when he decides to pull the ball down and run. Besides Hillis, McCoy's best options continue to be TEs Evan Moore and Ben Watson. The WRs numbers are so bad, they aren't worth putting up here.
Special Teams
The Browns punt coverage and kick coverage continue to drag the rest of the Browns special teams towards the tops of the Football Oustiders' rankings. They now rank 4th in weighted special teams DVOA. The kick return unit remains very bad.
Don't look for that to change this week, with an injured Josh Cribbs and a Jaguar kick coverage unit that ranks highly as well. The Jags have the best FG/XP unit in the league by DVOA. Their return units are relatively weak. But overall, they rank 5th in special teams.
Thoughts and Conclusions
The Browns need to find a way to cool down David Garrard. The DBs need to play better, but with Lewis and MJD big factors in the pass game too, the entire defense must play better in coverage. And, we need to get to the QB better. Garrard is athletic and will pull the ball down and run, but I don't want him comfortable in the pocket considering how good he has been the last two weeks.
The Browns will feed Hillis the ball constantly. If McCoy can hit one deep ball (30+ yards) to a true WR, I will have a lot of hope. Otherwise, check downs and running plays are going to lead to a small-play offense with minimum room for error.
We should score 20 or so points without a problem. I really don't like the matchup for our defense though. I see another tough loss:
Browns 24
Jaguars 30
0 recs | 48 comments
I should mention, I’m 2-6 in predicting Browns outcomes this year, including 5 wrong in a row. Hopefully, that streak continues.
Ryan Kelsey - November 20, 2010
Trust me, ommit trying to get to the quarterback, the 3-4 isn´t even designed for it. Put that energy into stopping them at or behind the line of scrimmage. Honor yardage on offense and defense, and we have a tighter more competitive game.
mooncamping - November 20, 2010
Isn’t getting to the quarterback stopping them behind the line of scrimmage?
shep615 - November 20, 2010
Right. Well, if the people were invisible the ball moving towards the line of scrimmage.
mooncamping - November 21, 2010
The Jags worried me more with Sims-Walker playing as we have been susceptible to the deep passes. But with him sitting I am not in the slightest worried about Garrard going off on us. Thomas is a fine WR, but not a #1 and is at his best going across the middle, which is TJ’s home and he likes to hit hard.
Hillis against a D that has surrendered 113 ypg and 12 rushing Tds on the year is an instant mismatch in our direction. Their suspect passing D against Evan Moore and Ben Watson is again a great matchup for us.
I expect MJD to do what every other RB has done to us: Rack up yds but get stuffed in the redzone.
Browns 27
Jags 10
Justin Kowalczyk - November 20, 2010
Interesting, I missed the Sims-Walker news. I saw he was probably earlier in the week, but it appears that that was a mistake- he is now listed as doubtful. If he is out, that will limit what the Jags can do with their WRs. Still, the Browns have an issue against #1s, and I think Thomas is turning into just that. TJ Ward may like to hit hard, but he isn’t always in the right place to be effective.
Ryan Kelsey - November 20, 2010
I just dont see Thomas as someone who can stretch a D. He is a YAC kinda guy who likes to get the underneath routes on single coverage while D’s watch Sims-Walker. A player that worries me is Mercedes Lewis. He is having a fairly solid season completely under the radar and could be a safety net for Garrard if MJD cant get going against our run D (which has been pretty solid in only allowing 2 rushing Tds.)
Justin Kowalczyk - November 20, 2010
Thomas
isn’t used down field very much. But he can get behind the defense for sure. He’s got 4.29 speed.
Ewdtrey - November 23, 2010
I am interested to see if we run well can we get bell or another RB to actually do something…..i am so worried about if this team loses hillis I am not sure there is anything behind him and that could be the end of all things for our offense.
allsides - November 20, 2010
I was upset for you guys
when you traded away Jerome Harrison.
Ewdtrey - November 23, 2010
I think we’ll win, but it will be close.
emily522 - November 20, 2010
Browns will cool Garrard by minimizing his time on the field. A steady dose of time consuming drives that wear the Jags defense will lead to a win. If the Browns’ special teams can deliver another quality game, this may not be too close a score.
elsandito - November 20, 2010
Why?
Simmsinns - November 20, 2010
The last 10 years I imagine.
North Coast Flea - November 20, 2010
In short, the same things that made him slip in the draft: size, arm strength. He has shown me a lot, but I’m still not ready to fully think we’re set at QB for years to come.
And like North Coast Flea said- Like all Browns fans, I’ve been fooled before, so forgive me if I’m a little gun shy.
Ryan Kelsey - November 20, 2010
I don’t think anyone can be sure that he’s the QB of the future right now. He certainly deserves to keep playing to get the chance to prove himself and to keep getting better, and we don’t need to worry about drafting a QB high next year if he keeps playing like this, but that doesn’t mean he’s our QB for the next 5 or 6 years. As people have pointed out, he’s not a really good QB yet. Maybe he’ll get there in the next couple years, and I’m certainly hopeful that he will, but it’s definitely not guarenteed yet.
Buckeye Brad - November 20, 2010
I’m sure of it.
StuckInPa - November 21, 2010
Simmsinns - November 21, 2010
I read somewhere that Holmgren’s a believer of taking a QB each year. So even if they’re comfortable with McCoy, I wouldn’t be surprised if we took one in the 5th or 6th round.
emily522 - November 21, 2010
He traded a first for Favre in 1992 and used a 9th rounder on Ty Detmer. Took Mark Brunell in 1993 with a 5th rounder, took QBs again in 95, 96 and 97 (5th round, 7th round and 7th round respectively) and finished up his tenure in Green Bay taking Matt Hasselback in the 6th. In Seattle, he traded for Hasselback, took Brock Huard in the 3rd round in 1999, Josh Booty in the 6th in 2001, another QB in the seventh in 2002, Seneca Wallace with a 4th in 2003, and David Greene with a 3rd in 2005.
Began his tenure in Cleveland trading a 6th for Wallace and drafting McCoy with in the third round.
So, yeah, Holmgren collects quarterbacks.
golanbatrac - November 21, 2010
Hillis is the Browns big threat, ace in the hole (and out of it). But enough with the fumbles already please.
Moore, Watson, Massaquoi, Stuckey
Hopefully one or more of these guys gets fired up and finds an extra gear. Seems like the Browns should be able to light up the field given everything I’ve read about the Jags secondary. If they can’t put up some serious yardage with the passing game I’ll be very disappointed.
Browns are coming out of six weeks of battles against the best in the league and they’ve stood their ground like warriors. Maintaining their intensity will be key. If they do that, I think they could win handily. If they show any weariness, the game is a tossup.
burntorangeandbrown - November 20, 2010
Oh BTW, if someone up there is listening, please give us Cribbs back asap.
burntorangeandbrown - November 20, 2010
McCoy's next step
SSSSSSSSSSOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO right on the ’we need to hit a WR 30+ yards down the field….i was thinking last week we need to see McCoy do a successful 2 minute drill, and this week i been thinking I want to see him take another step and hit a long TD throw to a WR downfield….we see it every week but not for us.
allsides - November 20, 2010
and i mean a streak and hit the guy in stride….he has attempted it some but not hit one yet.
allsides - November 20, 2010
No doubt. Of course it will help if one of our WRs can get a couple of steps of separation on a 30+ route…
Seems like for once this may be a good opportunity now that we don’t have to do so against a top tier defensive secondary. And, hopefully by now the timing / chemistry between Colt and his receivers is starting to really gel now that he’s had a few weeks of reps in practice with them. (I imagine it was a bit challenging getting the timing and chemistry down with the WRs by watching them run routes from the sidelines with a clipboard in his hands…)
burntorangeandbrown - November 20, 2010
Unfortunately, I’m not sure if it is fair to expect this out of McCoy considering our WRs.
This is another reason I find it difficult to fairly evaluate McCoy through 4 games.
Ryan Kelsey - November 20, 2010
Everyone needs to put things in the proper perspective when ‘evaluating’ McCoy.
Mark Sanchez is halfway through his 2nd season and is still being ‘evaluated’.
Look at the first 10 games of his first season – he was 4-6 with mediocre stats at best. That was after a full pre-season getting all the reps with the 1st string. Even through this year (until the Browns game) his stats have been miserable, and he was still a big question mark.
You can pretty much name a quarterback whose last name isn’t Manning, Brees, Brady, or Rivers and you can say they are still a question mark (being ‘evaluated’) in the eyes of their fans and the general NFL fan base. (with a very few exceptions – Flacco, Aaron Rogers perhaps, etc.).
I’m sure I don’t need to regurgitate what is already known about the history of even some of the greatest QBs in history and their early careers – i.e. it takes time. The position of QB is arguably the most difficult and time consuming for a college player to transition to the NFL level.
McCoy is a the greenest of rookies in the most literal sense, who wasn’t even supposed to be a starting QB this year. He got zero reps in the pre-season with the 1st string, and until just six weeks ago he still had no real practice under his belt with the 1st string and was in ‘clipboard learning for next year’ mode. It is pretty much impossible to make a ‘fair evaluation’ of McCoy until he has many more starts under his belt – possibly not even until well into next season (when perhaps he’s had the benefit of some serious talent at WR, etc…).
Personally, I am rooting for him, believe he has what it takes, has the arm strength necessary, has incredible accuracy and mobility, has “IT”, could at any time have a HUGE game, and because of the nature of the NFL, could at any time have a BAD game.
Patience
burntorangeandbrown - November 20, 2010
Everyone knows that we can’t fully evaluate a QB in his rookie year. I don’t think anyone here is doing that.
Buckeye Brad - November 20, 2010
Well, there have been quite a few posters (not just on this board, but on other Browns blogs, etc.) who have:
1. prematurely annointed McCoy as “The Guy” (QBOTF / for the next x years, etc.).
2. responded a bit too far to the other extreme by trying to dissect each of his starts play by play, saying “I still need to see him (fill in the blank), etc…”.
I want to see those questions answered too. Is he “The real McCoy?”, “is he the next (Kosar or other HOF QB)?”, etc.
I was just trying to make the point / reminder that with QBs it usually takes a painfully long time to make a ‘fair evaluation’.
burntorangeandbrown - November 21, 2010
BTW – in all fairness, as a Longhorns fan I’ve been guilty of #1 (prematurely anointing…) in one or two of my early posts (responding to some of the harsher skeptics).
burntorangeandbrown - November 21, 2010
I think the number one thing
I would need to see from my QB to know he can be the guy of the future, is the ability to go throw progressions faster than the defense can get to him. Most guys have accuracy. Most have ability physically. Almost of them were winners at some time. Very few can hit a third read down field on time.
Ewdtrey - November 24, 2010
The only thing I’m scared of is the Jags’ passing game. Garrard is NOT a complete scrub. Dude can put some numbers up here and there. MJD is pretty much done as a threat so don’t expect anything on the ground from them. And their D is garbage.
Browns win easily by 2+ TDs.
Brownie's Year - November 20, 2010
Strongly disagree.
TheDriveStillHurts - November 20, 2010
so what
Brownie's Year - November 21, 2010
MJD is still
a playmaker.
Ewdtrey - November 24, 2010
Braylon Edwards?
I have also been pondering an idiotic thought that has stuck in my head for a month….the Edwards trade brought over so much to this team(draft and players) that I won’t second guess the trade….i don’t miss the mouth either, but what would our season be right now with him there? A stud WR is what we are missing. I think it even opens up the running game even more, too. Don’t worry guys, i just punched myself in the nose for that stupid thought.
I don’t think we use Even Moore enough….all those redzone plays inside the 10 and not a fade pattern to the guy yet. Last week against the short DBs of the Jets might have been a good time to use it.
allsides - November 20, 2010
I think Moore was lined up at WR through most of the 4th quarter and OT last week. And he drew Revis as a matchup most of the time. Robiskie and Massaquoi just don’t put any pressure on the defense. Cribbs can every now and then, but when he is out of the game, its Watson, Moore, Hillis, Stuckey on a short cross or nothing.
Ryan Kelsey - November 20, 2010
same exact thing.
BE would drop the balls that counted and we still lose the close games.
discoinferno083 - November 20, 2010
Edwards is not a stud WR, in my opinion.
He’s have a solid year on the NYJ but I don’t really care.
He sucks when it counts and he had no place on this team. I see our record being exactly what it is now.
Simmsinns - November 21, 2010
Edwards
isn’t even a good fit with Colt. Would be a better matchup with Jake.
Ewdtrey - November 24, 2010
If i were a Jags fan i would be confident in Garrard against our secondary… i don’t think that they will have a problem scoring. In my opinion it is up to our offence to show up and take the game away. One problem we could face is Hillis getting worn out. It sounds like without him we don’t have much of a chance, and no one has been able to back him up yet. Plus without the wildcat or cyclone since Cribbs is probably out McCoy won’t get any relief.
I think if we don’t get hurt during the game we can still win. We need better defense against the pass plus all that Hillis has to offer and another turnover free game from McCoy to win.
With these criteria met i predict Browns 31 Jags 24
crazyL80 - November 20, 2010
Wow! You’ve got the Jags scoring 30 points, more than any team has scored on the Browns all season. Is Garrard that good? Better than Brees, Ben, and Brady??? Just sayin…
If we thought the Browns should have defeated the Chiefs and Bucs, then this game should have a similar expectation. Of course, the Browns lost those games, so who knows?
Spidey - November 20, 2010
Even if the Jags do score 30 points against the Browns that doesn’t mean that Garrard is a better QB than Brees, Brady, or anyone else we’ve faced. It would just mean that he — and the rest of the offense — played better that day.
Buckeye Brad - November 20, 2010
I think we all know that, I think Spidey’s point is what about Garrard and that offense would lead one to believe that they would put up more points against us than the Patriots, Steelers and Saints.
Villeslgr - November 21, 2010
Exactly. Thank you.
If we are going by the numbers and season trend, I don’t see how the Jags score 30. Should we be discounting the Browns defense this much due to the loss of Roth and Fujita? Perhaps, since Fujita was my “biggest change of the pre-season” it stands to reason that our defense will struggle.
Spidey - November 21, 2010 via mobile
Garrard might be better than Ben. As a hypothetical this is just guessing but I think if they had switched places, the Jags would be worse off and their play / record would reflect that, and the Steelers would be better off and their play / record would reflect that.
Simmsinns - November 21, 2010
+1
The Jags haven’t had a defense in years. And as bad as the Pitt OL was, the Jag OL was worse in 08 and 09
Ewdtrey - November 24, 2010
Garrard is playing better than Brees, Ben, and Brady when we played them. Brady was figuring out the offense again without Moss. Ben was coming off suspension. Brees hasn’t been played anywhere near last year’s level.
I see the Jags offense as a better version of the Jets. Jets scored 20 in regulation. Jags score a little more. Maybe 30 is too high, especially if Sims-Walker doesn’t play. But the Browns D has struggled in the areas that Garrard has looked amazing in his last two games.
Ryan Kelsey - November 21, 2010
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