Leon Halip - Getty Images
over 1 year ago: DETROIT - NOVEMBER 07: LaDainian Tomlinson #21 of the New York Jets runs for a short gain during the third quarter of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on November 7 2010 in Detroit Michigan. The Jets defeated the Lions 23-20 in overtime. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Defending Super Bowl Champs, on the road, against the most accurate passer in the league? BOOM dominating win, check.
Team of the last decade, 3 time Super Bowl winning QB, evil genius coach? BOOM dominating win, check.
Media darling coach and team, great defense led by best corner in the league? ...
Let's see what the numbers say about the third team in a row that should crush us on paper.
I was never sold on the Jets last year. Mark Sanchez screamed Brady Quinn/Matt Leinert with less meaningful experience and unfounded cockiness. Furthermore, he had limited weapons with an overrated running back and Braylon Edwards. The only thing that offense had going for them was some really good O-Linemen, especially Nick Mangold.
The defense dragged that terrible offense to 9-7 and a lucky playoff spot. Sure, they got to the AFC Championship game. But that is to overlook some serious flaws. Santonio Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson and an extra year of experience for Sanchez made me think they could probably build on last year's run. They have, but I don't think they are necessarily great.
When the Jets have the ball
Overall, the Jets are an average offensive team this year, 18th in the league. They are 21st in passing DVOA. They are 10th in rushing DVOA. Sanchez is 27th as a passer in DVOA, almost exactly average on a per play basis. And I think he is sliding. I'd be surprised if he ends up with a positive DVOA. Its hard to say who is dragging down whom, but Braylon Edwards is 47th in DVOA, -1%. Jericho Cotchery is one of the worst WRs in the league, -30% DVOA and -77 DYAR. Holmes has improved the passing game, 4% DVOA for him. The Browns pass D is improving, now 22nd in the league.
Tomlinson is having something of a revival season. He is 8th in DVOA, 10% higher than average. That's no where near his prime, but way better than most expected out of him this season. Shonn Greene has been above average too, at 4%. The Browns rush D is very good, 7th in the league in DVOA.
(the rest of the preview will be abbreviated, as some computer issues have attacked me once again)
When the Browns have the ball
The Jets defense is half of what their reputation is. Their rush D is 2nd in the league 23% better than average. Their pass D, however, has been suspect. 12% worse than average, 21st in the league.
Thoughts and Conclusions
I actually like the matchup a lot. We'll likely need Colt McCoy to do more than the last couple games. But in his brief flashes, he has shown he would be up to it. Also, he won't need to score too much, as I am confident that our D will hold the Jets to under 20 points.
Browns 18
Jets 17
0 recs | 45 comments
reasons why the Browns will win tomorrow:
Sanchez is nowhere near the caliber of Brees and Brady. He’ll have more problems reading the D than those guys did.
The Jets needed OT to beat the LIONS! Need I say more?
Right now, no one is playing better than the Browns and they’re going to keep getting better.
dawgtribe - November 13, 2010
Hey now! Take it easy on that Lions game – Detroit is a bunch of dirty players who take cheap shots…sarc
Really, you gotta love the fact that the Jets are still talking about last week’s game while the Browns seem to have put their game behind them.
Spidey - November 13, 2010 via mobile
I hope the Browns can get to Sanchez. He is downright awful when he gets pressured and flushed out of the pocket. Kelsey is right about him, he is way overrated. I’ve posted it recently – his passing percentage consistently hovers around 53% (did I mention he does not handle pressure well?). Browns D needs to go after Sanchez.
If McCoy can continue his laser beam accuracy and cool under fire – keep the Jets honest and open up some space for the Hildebeast to go on another rampage.
Browns – we have yet another cocky customer begging for a piece of humble pie. You know what to do!
burntorangeandbrown - November 13, 2010
No matter if McCoy develops or not, Mangini was smart to trade the rights to draft Sanchez, I think.
golanbatrac - November 13, 2010
Mack>>>>>>>Sanchez.
SpecialBrownie - November 13, 2010
Sanchez is much better outside the pocket
If he rolls out look for Keller and Holmes to make solid catches.
Besides, the JETS O-Line is arguably the best in the league-look at all the guys they’ve shut down this year.
GangGreenGol4 - November 13, 2010
Joe Thomas and Alex Mack think otherwise.
North Coast Flea - November 13, 2010
True. Flipside of this, as I saw Fujita point out, is that the Jets have a running game that is light years ahead of either the Saints or the Pats and thus confusing the QB is not going to shut down their offense the way it did with Brees and especially Brady.
TheDriveStillHurts - November 13, 2010
Good point.
Spidey - November 13, 2010
Hasn’t LT2 slowed way down recently?
JulioBernazard - November 14, 2010
That is the big hope for the win. I think Colt will have a rough one tomorrow, as our WRs will be blanketed. Keep pounding Hillis early and often, even if we have a few 3 and outs. Then open it up and win in the second half.
realmccoy - November 13, 2010
I wonder how much cushion they will give MoMass? Could make it possible for him to get some short come-backs and maybe allow Moore to get deep on them a couple of times.
JustBob - November 13, 2010
?? Not a fan of Sanchez, but he had more “meaningful experience” than Brady Quinn.
Thomas Jones was/is not overrated — he is consistently underrated. Every year everyone (including me) thinks he is done and he just keeps producing. At his age, it is something.
TheDriveStillHurts - November 13, 2010
My exact thoughts
There is no possible way you can say TJ is overrated. Look how consistent he is. I can see an argument that it was mainly due to the O-Line, but nobody brings TJ up when talking about elite RB’s. So, if anything he has been consistently underrated.
As for Sanchez, he now has more games in the NFL than College so I’ll give you that, but comparing him to Quinn & Leinert is a joke. As far as I can tell he’s a starting Quarterback in the NFL and will continue to be-he’s not a backup.
GangGreenGol4 - November 13, 2010
How?? Because he went to USC? how did that “meaningful experience” at USC turn out for Leinart for example. `Please explain how just by going to USC and playing their schedule (which I assume is how he has more “meaningful experience” than Quinn) logically has more value in terms of experience than being a 3 year starter? I dislike defending quinn, but the guy started for 3 seasons.
Generally, QBs who only start 12-13 games take a while to adjust to the league and rarely get drafted in the first. Tom Brady’s success is the exception to that rule (he is the exception to many general rules about the NFL and scouting)
bross09 - November 13, 2010
Quinn started 4 years at Notre Dame. Leinart started 3 years at USC. Sanchez started 1 year at USC.
Jones is overrated.
Ryan Kelsey - November 15, 2010
Jets fan here
I know my handle probably suits both our teams, so I just wanted to qualify it. I disagree with you liking the match up. We are good at stopping what you do best in running Hillis. I know you all hate Braylon, but he has been better than average for us and our best receiver so far. He will have to be stopped. My son is a sophomore at Case Western, so I know Cleveland a little and listen to sports radio there , and I see how starved you are for a winner. I feel for you. Sanchez is erratic, but when he plays well we are very , very tough to beat.
longsuffering but optimistic - November 13, 2010
I think this is our toughest matchup of the year by far. Though I think we will pull it out. . . . And Braylon will let you down soon.
TheDriveStillHurts - November 13, 2010
I think most of us agree with you that we will probably struggle offensively tomorrow. I personally think with the right (read: wrong) weather conditions, Sanchez will struggle.
I am (un)fortunate enough to get to watch the Jets every week, and Sanchez was a lot worse once the weather turned for the worse last year. Anyone know what the forecast is?
Roger Dorn - November 13, 2010
Sunny and 60 3 hours south of Cleveland.
golanbatrac - November 13, 2010
I’ve been waiting for someone to mention this. It’s way to early in his carreer to mark him as a ‘good weather’ quarterback. And while he does a great job of moving in the pocket, on a windy day with our OC liking the pass over the run…?
jaxopguy - November 13, 2010
I agree it’s way too early, but I’d be concerned.
Roger Dorn - November 13, 2010
Temperature in the high 40’s or low 50’s and a good chance of rain. I’m brining my poncho but hopefully I won’t have to wear it (since it’s red and I’ll stick out like a sore thumb).
Buckeye Brad - November 13, 2010
Who will care if you stick out like a sore thumb?
SpecialBrownie - November 13, 2010
Paint a big silver O on it. You’ll just look like another guy from Ohio.
North Coast Flea - November 13, 2010
I agree and although I’ve posted a couple of times criticizing Sanchez, I’ve also said I think he is a good QB and is capable of racking up points if the Browns pass rush can’t get to him. If he was more mobile and could handle pressure better, he could be a great QB. As I said above, I think the Browns D getting to Sanchez will be key in stopping the Jets.
burntorangeandbrown - November 13, 2010
Browns win 16-6
Jets wont get in the endzone. LeBraylon will throw a hissy-fit cause of his own drops. He’ll blame Dirty Sanchez who will be wearing Browns Stadium turf. LT fumbles twice.
Thumpin96 - November 13, 2010
Braylon
It’s been a year and we see what dropped passes are, his DWI, and letting our OC know what he thinks of his play calling.His drops are fewer and farther between, he cost himself a lot of money in his next contract with the DWI, and outspoken wide receivers are a dime a dozen.With all that, he is pretty valuable to this offense. A good blocker on run plays and he does stretch the field for us against defenses. Holmes is so new to us(first 4 games suspended) that it is hard to compare the two. Cotchery, a real fan favorite has not had a good year for us so far. So, try(I understand) not to hate me for really liking Bray the Jet.
longsuffering but optimistic - November 13, 2010
Burntorangeandbrown
Sanchez is mobile. He is erratic because he has a tendency to stare down receivers , but ever since he got hurt last year he takes off on broken plays almost too infrequently. When he roll out, he is very accurate on the move. He struggles forcing balls in to Bray/Cotch on slants and reading 8 man drops.
longsuffering but optimistic - November 13, 2010
This is the team we have to “play”, that is counter their every move, no shut down tactics. But of course, keep them out of the end zone. They´re probably the most spirit driven team in the league, a highly underestimated quality in todays NFL. These guys earned their spots on the team through smash mouth don´t question the team mantra athletic assertiveness, given a choice they ended up with the better player at each position. While these efforts might make you question their endurance, they´re certainly motivated, and maybe more elite than you´d think, fine tuned into each others ability to go beyond their natural limitations.
Add to that a LaDainian Tomlinson that has basically cooling his heels, and the biggest draft steel in round three last year Shonn Greene, who is most certainly biding his time, to take the mantle of franchise player. Santonio Holmes had greatness written all over him, yet for whatever reasons he did not chash his tickets to the hall of fame in Pittsburgh, he´s also waiting to happen. Braylon Edwards has been the long ball clown over there, we all know what he can do once he´s allowed to run some routes, in beast mode his after the catch ability also remains to be utilized. The other players probably at least know how to play their parts. The defense is unheralded except for Revis and Cromartie, but the war of attrition has most likely lotted them a rough hewn rag tag group of mercenaries ready for any team.
How do we beat them? Throw out your play-book, and get ready for some intuitive sand lot football. If you don´t win your individual battles, in the three tiers, short, medium and long, I´ve been talking about, they´ll beat you. They probably have a fancy shmancy playbook to back up their actions, but I doubt whether they are practicing rocket science. Come to play, win your individual battles, look good play good, don´t get too focused on their play makers, on the contrary lets hope they get into a groove so we can move.
mooncamping - November 13, 2010
Totally Random Prediction of the Week: Robo is our leading receiver tomorrow.
golanbatrac - November 13, 2010
I can see it.
SpecialBrownie - November 13, 2010
What is DVOA?
just reading the Post and those figures seem waaaay off to me, the Jets are currently 4th in the NFL in Rushing and 12 overall on Offense in the entire League, maybe im missing something but you have them at 21st and 10th…also Sanchez is 16th in the NFL in Passing and you have him listed at 27th…what am i missing?
AFCxxBEAST - November 13, 2010
You are missing what DVOA means obviously.
SpecialBrownie - November 13, 2010
that is a correct assumption :) …if i knew what it meant then maybe it would make sense at those atrocious innacurate stats that i see,lol…care to elaborate on what DVOA is?
AFCxxBEAST - November 13, 2010
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
basically, it’s more insightful way of analyzing team/player performances than just looking at tradition stats like yds/tds
davus - November 13, 2010
Defense Adjusted Value over Average.
Pretty much, it measures production and efficiency on a per-play basis, adjusted to the opposition. It is useful because it normalizes the value when a guy gets a ton of touches and racks up yards, but isn’t terribly efficient.
a value like this is much more objective and finding the overall worth of a player/unit than total yards, which can be easily skewed (example: Buffalo ranks 6th in the league in passing defense in yards, but 32nd in Passing D DVOA…because teams get a big lead and stop passing)
bross09 - November 13, 2010
thanks for the info, i will check out that Link
AFCxxBEAST - November 13, 2010
Analogy – think of it the same way you do college football rankings / polls.
A team may be undefeated and have astronomical stats, but if their strength of schedule is very weak, etc. the stats have to be taken in context… you get the gist. Similar concept.
burntorangeandbrown - November 13, 2010
It is nothing college football rankings and polls.
Ryan Kelsey - November 15, 2010
Got a last minute call to go to the game in a suite tomorrow. Suite? Sweet!!
Weather is looking “iffy” for tomorrow – 58 for a high with a 40% chance of rain, mainly in the morning. Winds will be 9-13mph. Could be a ground game with tough kicking conditions.
DaveDawg09 - November 13, 2010
What makes you think 10mph winds effect passing or kicking? The ball will be dry if the rain subsides. Should be a normal distribution of passing and running.
elsandito - November 13, 2010
10 MPH is from Cleve Hopkins airport – 10 miles south of the lake. It’s always more windy on the lakefront with that open expanse of water. Not to mention the crazy swirreling effect in the stadium. You can regularly see Old Glory and The USMC flags in the East end blowing opposite directions – and different directions than the streamers on the goalposts.
DaveDawg09 - November 13, 2010
Yeah, that stadium funnels in the wind off the lake and swirls it around.
Makes Phil Dawson’s success all the more impressive.
Bumblyjack - November 13, 2010
Dawson is the man! Anybody that can read the winds in that place like he can is a huge asset – I hope the Browns wise up and keep him around for at least a couple of more years.
Updated forecast for the stadium is calling for “breezy” winds at 10-20mph, BTW.
DaveDawg09 - November 14, 2010
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