Many of you know Football Outsiders for their unique statistical breakdowns, providing the subtle details that make you go "hmmm" when you read about them. A player might look good on gameday, but they could statistically end up being a vulnerability. That type of information can be found on all 32 NFL teams in Football Outsiders 2009 book.
We asked Football Outsiders a few questions on the Cleveland Browns, including some tidbits about how the Browns will utilize WR Joshua Cribbs, what defensive coordinator Rob Ryan brings to the defensive side of the ball, and which new player will have the most significant impact this year.
I think you'd have to go with Abram Elam, no? He's penciled in as a starting safety, and was the key to the Jets-Browns trade on draft day.
Elam didn't have great numbers in our charting project by any means -- his numbers against both the run and the pass were middling or worse -- but the coaching staff loves him. Which is enough to get him on the field, and that's half the battle.
2. Last year, the Miami Dolphins were popular for the using the "Wildcat" formation so often. Browns fans know that last year in training camp, Joshua Cribbs had a "Flash" package, but our coaching staff seemed too stubborn to use it on gameday. What advantages can the Browns have by using Cribbs in the "Flash/Wildcat" package?
Cleveland actually ran the second-most Wildcat-style plays in the league, with 21; obviously, Miami far surpassed them (with 90).
The Browns were, unfortunately, not particularly effective with their variation. They averaged only 4.8 yards per play, and had a success rate of 43 percent. (A play is considered "successful" by that metric when it gains 40 percent of needed yards for a first down on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down.)
To make the Wildcat tick, there has to be the threat of passing the ball. I think Cleveland's Wildcat didn't really offer that option frequently enough in 2008. (Giants game aside.)
3. What changes can Rob Ryan bring to the Browns 3-4 defense, and does he have the personnel to run it effectively?
I think you'll see Ryan attack the line of scrimmage more frequently than Romeo Crennel's 3-4 variation did. Eric Mangini and Crennel obviously come from similar schools, but Ryan obviously comes from a family where getting to the quarterback and shutting down the run are jobs 1 and 1A.
The biggest issue for the defense isn't going to be personnel -- instead, it's going to be health. Over the past several seasons, the Browns have exhibited a pretty strong relationship between the number of games their starters have missed on defense, and their rank in points allowed:
2004 41 24th
2005 3 11th
2006 52 22nd
2007 29 21st
2008 25 16th
The league average for games lost on defense is just about 19, so that's all of one year out of the last five where the team's been healthier than average. If the team can stay healthy, they'll play better. It's that simple.
4. It is stated in your book that Brandon McDonald was part of the reason the Browns were ranked dead-last in the NFL against No. 2 receivers. Is this something that mainly rests on the shoulders of McDonald, or are there other obscure stats defensively that might "hint" as to why the Browns fell short in this category?
It's always difficult to assign 100 percent of the blame for a particular stat to a given player, so we can't say that it was entirely McDonald's fault. Certainly, the Browns' safety play wasn't great last year, and an improved pass rush (the Browns ranked 30th in the league with 18 sacks and a 4.5% Adjusted Sack Rate, our stat which adjusts sack totals for passes thrown and the quality of the opposing offensive line) would've prevented him from spending too long in coverage.
But it's fair to say that McDonald deserves a good chunk of the blame.
5. The Browns rarely threw the ball to their running backs last season. With Eric Mangini now in charge, is there anything from his days with the Jets that might indicate this will change this season?
Well, he did throw to Leon Washington a lot with some success. I'm not sure if the Browns have that sort of option -- we love Jerome Harrison, but he probably doesn't have Washington's hands, while Josh Cribbs is a wide receiver.
You have to consider who's on the field. Jamal Lewis is no receiver. When he's on the field, it doesn't really make sense to toss a lot of passes to the halfback. If Harrison gets more time, I think you'll see more passes to the halfback.
Thanks again to Football Outsiders for their time!
1 recs | 59 comments
QB choice?
On the Browns web site, Anderson is shown as the starter now, and Quinn second. Is this a change from earlier in the week? I thought they were listed as Anderson/Quinn in the first slot before.
NM Dawg - August 14, 2009
The depth chart on the official website has said DA was the starter since it was first posted. I was confused at first because other sources were reporting a “tie”. I don’t know if the website wouldn’t let them do that of if it is an NFL rule thing, or if nobody cared enough to do a 1a/1b listing there.
rufio - August 14, 2009
Hopefully, Mangini will let the cat out of the bag today. I’m looking forward to one of them standing out tomorrow, and am hoping it’s Quinn. If Mangini hasn’t already revealed it to the players, it would be good I think to settle on one before the regular season so more preparation can be put into that player.
NM Dawg - August 14, 2009
Quinn best have a very good game! If Ratliff has a better game than Quinn, WOW i guess we talk about that if it happens.
dohior - August 14, 2009
Does the “r” in dohior stand for Ratliff by chance?
Roger Dorn - August 14, 2009
No it doesn’t.
dohior - August 15, 2009
“Redundant”
kwoog - August 15, 2009
I think it’s funny how you act like all the pressure is on Quinn (possibly to even get the back up role) but never even suggest that DA may not be the started. You’ve said that Anderson is your man, but I’m finally realizing that all of your “Ratliff is great” talk is more blind loyalty to DA more than anything else. If Quinn wins the starting job and Mangini loves Ratliff so much, why would we need Andreson right? You’re hoping Quinn sucks it up so he’ll get traded and Anderson won’t have any competition. Either that or your just nuts, but I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt here.
Onyx Lightning - August 14, 2009 via mobile
You don’t need anderson. but Ratliff is very raw he may need a year or two before he takes over. As a trade Anderson couldn’t even get a 3 round drift choice. Quinn’s value is much higher. Mangini’s going to trade one of the QB’s if not this year than before next year. There is more to it than who we think is the better QB. Mangini could have a Tom Brady for the price they are paying for Quinn and Anderson. Mangini love’s this kid he said that last year. About Brett Ratliff , Then he made a move to trade with the jets to get him. Ratliff has had a pretty good camp, and he has put some pressure on Anderson and Quinn. In the last three days Anderson and Quinn has stepped it up a little bit Anderson a little more than Quinn
dohior - August 15, 2009
Ratliff is NOT going to take over, now or in a few years. Would you get this out of your mind. Just because Mangini traded for him doesn’t mean he wants to make him the starter; maybe he just liked him as a good backup in case he could trade Anderson or Quinn.
So far all you have for evidence that Ratliff will be the starter, besides all the evidence against it, is that “Mangini likes him”. Unless you have something else to add, please stop making the same comment over and over again. It’s getting annoying.
Buckeye Brad - August 15, 2009
Its what you call grooming a QB, witch he started when Mangini was the head coach of the jets. If he continues to show improvements, over the next year or two than he has a shot. Lets just see tonight why, Mangini like this guy so much. Who know, he could be the second coming of Farve or Couch. Just let it play out. BEAT THE PACK
dohior - August 15, 2009
kwoog - August 15, 2009
Q.B
I BEN A BROWNS FAN FOR 30 YEARS. I AM FROM MASS. NOT TO MANY. IF THE BROWNS DO NOT START QUINN,MY BROWNS DAYS ARE OVER.ANDERSON MR.RED ZONE MAN?BIIAN AND THROW ANOTHERINTERSEPTION IN THE RED ZONE ANDERSON
JEETS - August 14, 2009
Lay off the capslock cruise control buddy.
Lisol - August 14, 2009
And lay on a few grammar texts. Maybe osmosis will work for you.
APV - August 14, 2009
malor.
gahnki - August 14, 2009
I think hes drunk
BradyQuinnisBeast - August 14, 2009
I’d love to see Cribbs run a Wildcat type offensive look, but I’d like to see some consistency in the basic elements of our offense first. Like maybe getting our rush average up over 3.5 ypc, completing more than 50% of or passes, and actually getting into the endzone.
Regardless, I’m psyched for some Browns football tomorrow.
Onyx Lightning - August 14, 2009 via mobile
And we should let Cribbs throw. He played QB at Akron and the Wildcat is only succesful with a passing threat
BradyQuinnisBeast - August 14, 2009
He played QB at Kent State actually – hence the “Flash” package.
Lisol - August 14, 2009
Sorry I get my MAC schools mixed up. They’re all the same
BradyQuinnisBeast - August 14, 2009
I’d watch what you say — there are a lot of Browns fans who went to MAC schools.
Buckeye Brad - August 14, 2009
Cmon, it was just a joke. Please dont hate me Browns fans who went to MAC schools
BradyQuinnisBeast - August 14, 2009
Wow thanks for calling me less of a person because I go to a MAC school. Jerk.
SpecialBrownie - August 15, 2009
How did I imply you are less of a person
BradyQuinnisBeast - August 15, 2009
sarcasm
Roger Dorn - August 15, 2009
Yeah. Last season I got my hopes up for a Cribbs passing TD.
Turns out Romeo only likes to see it training. The ol’ give-the-ball-to-Cribbs-and-run was predictable.
skipkirk - August 14, 2009
You are so right, they really need it get cribbs in the game. The guys a beast, he breaks or shakes off the first guy every time. It would be nice to give him a shot at RB, if they would throw a shot pass he, could go all the way in. The thing is if vickers is not in the game then you have no running game. So who do you replace? Damm if you do DAMM if you don’t. GO BROWNS
dohior - August 15, 2009
Sorry if I haven’t been paying attention, but they’re really going with the whole “we don’t know who our starting quarterback is” thing? Really? Has Mangini given a date by which he’ll name a starter?
And yes, like I said, I haven’t been paying attention.
dgcambridge - August 14, 2009
I am guessing right near the third preseason game
Roger Dorn - August 14, 2009
and if not then probably by the start of the regular season
Indians95 - August 15, 2009
I say after the second preseason game
BradyQuinnisBeast - August 15, 2009
oh well as long as he picks the right QB
Indians95 - August 15, 2009
well, if he knew who the “right” qb was, we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation.
get rid of your signature. it sucks.
DontCallMeJoey - August 16, 2009
Gameday
Heres wishing the boss a great game… will be watching for his first (of many this season) T.D tomorrow… go get ’em # 31
Jamals6082 - August 14, 2009
Football Outsiders...
I guess it was nice of them to give some feedback…
1) Their analysis on Abram Elam was completely worthless and a joke. He’s
the most significant impact solely because he’ll get on time on the field…thanks,
I learned a lot about what Elam brings from that.
2) They don’t think 4.8 yard per play is effective? Simple math yields a
first down after three “unsuccessful” executions of 4.8 yards per play.
3) Rob Ryan will attack more….thanks for that revelation, I had no idea,
they are revealing forgotten secrets. Healthy players = Better
production, wow! No insight on improved depth this year to offer, the
statistics don’t answer anything for you guys on this one?
4) The thoughts on Brandon Mcdonald are the only thing that I found
useful, but are they assuming he’s always covering the #2? My guess is
yes, so again fail.
The guys who write this book probably were rejects who weren’t good enough
to be on the BCS programming team. I need to buy their book asap.
Sdel_Brown - August 15, 2009
Most national sportswriters never really do their homework about the Browns anyway, unless they’re from Cleveland, so are you really that surprised?
North Coast Flea - August 15, 2009
These guys aren’t sportswriters, they write for a website and publish a book about football stats. They have someone watching and charting every NFL game so they do know about every team, probably more than most of us. Are you familiar with their work?
Buckeye Brad - August 15, 2009
I actually first heard of them around this time last year, but an annalist is an annalist no matter what title you give them.
North Coast Flea - August 15, 2009
Huh? What’s an annalist — is that a word I don’t know? Anyways, I don’t care what you want to call them, the point is they aren’t like your typical “national sportswriters”, which you referred to them as, who don’t know the league in depth. The people there know every team well enough to speak about them intelligently.
Buckeye Brad - August 15, 2009
Guessing he meant analyst?
Chris Pokorny - August 15, 2009
Oh, I didn’t even think of that. I honestly thought maybe an annalist was someone who wrote for an annual (like FO).
Anyways, I wouldn’t call sportswriters “analysts”. Analysts are former players and coaches and people who know the game; sportswriters are writers who happen to write about sports, and usually many sports at once so they don’t know any one sport in depth. Even guys who write only about football and know a lot about the sport, such as Peter King, can’t really break down plays like analysts do. So, yes, there is a huge difference between sportswriters and analysts like the guys at FO.
Buckeye Brad - August 15, 2009
The guys at FO are pretty smart; they used advanced stats to analyze football similar to what the Baseball Prospectus (and others) do for baseball. Of course, it’s much harder to do this for football because so many people are involved in one play.
I didn’t see anything wrong with what they said about Elam — they said his stats weren’t great but the coaches love him so he’ll get plenty of playing time. What’s wrong with that? And I don’t think 4.8 yards be play is great if you’re talking about “trick” plays out of the Flash package because you expect those plays to gain more yards since they catch the defense off guard. Also, did you read their definition of a “successful” play? Their definition made perfect sense to me — the success depends on the down so you can’t just look at the average number of yards. 4.8 yards isn’t successful if it’s third and 6.
I think you need to read what they’re saying again because you seemed to misunderstand or misinterpret much of it. The FO guys are smart and watch and chart every game so they know what they’re talking about.
Buckeye Brad - August 15, 2009
For your second response, I believe they classify “successful” vs. “unsuccessful” plays based on achieving a set % of yards needed to get a first down on a given down.
For instance, if the offense commits holding on 1st down and they have a 1st and 20, 4.8 yards is not a great average.
or
If the offense has a regular 1st and 10 and gets 4 inches, that’s a pretty unsuccessful play. But, if it’s 4th and inches, 4 inches could win you a ballgame.
rufio - August 17, 2009
I see below that you understand this, please disregard my above comment.
rufio - August 17, 2009
Well, if they would have broken down which downs we ran the wildcat on and showed the success rate based on their formula, I would be more satisfied with that analysis. I’m not discrediting it completely. All they provided was the end result, they love their statistics, so why not prove it instead of looking off their spread sheet? I’d like to know what down they ran the wildcat (err…cough…flash package) and what yard they average, how often they ran it on that down,…etc.
They didn’t offer anything on Elam. They know as much about Elam as I do, I would have liked more insight from these guys. Don’t see how you can defend saying nothing just because they didn’t say anything wrong. Even be honest off his stats and how they would project him if they don’t see much out of the guy. I think I know why they didn’t try…
I think they are guilty of using box scores more than watching games (at least Browns games). Maybe they are great with analyzing more popular teams, but they don’t give you much from a Browns perspective is all i’m saying. You have to be joking with me if you learned anything from reading this.
Sdel_Brown - August 15, 2009
First of all, when you want to respond to someone’s comment please hit “reply” on the bottom of the comment. It makes it much easier to follow who you’re talking to.
Secondly, you either missed what I wrote or completely ignored it. They don’t get their information from box scores, I said they have someone watching every game and charting it. They keep track of what the formation was, what type of play was run, who was on the field, etc. It’s much more complicated than reading stats from a newspaper, so you should know what you’re talking about before you say things. They don’t care about “popular” teams; they watch every team in the NFL.
They have a book you can buy (actually it’s a PDF file online — they didn’t publish an actual book this year). In it they have all their stats as well as an explanation of what they mean. As for Elam, they mentioned his numbers against the run and the pass were middling or worse, so you can’t say they didn’t offer anything. The stats they use are too complicated to quote without an understanding of what they mean, so that’s proably why he wasn’t quoting stats. If you want the stats, look on their website or buy their book.
You are making judgements about these people without knowing anything about them. This was a short interview — did you really expect them to break down every down we ran the Flash package and go in to a deep analysis? I’m sure they could do it, but that wasn’t he point of this interview. Again, buy the book or check out their website, all that information is on there if you’re really interested. But I don’t think you’re interested — it seems like you’re just looking for things to criticize because you obviously didn’t read everything I wrote in my response above.
Buckeye Brad - August 15, 2009
I still just dont think that any big football website pays as much attention to the small teams as they do the big teams
BradyQuinnisBeast - August 15, 2009
Sure, ESPN doesn’t, but these guys aren’t ESPN. I’ll bet they know just as much about the Browns as they do the Steelers or Patriots. In their book they have the same amount of information for every team.
Buckeye Brad - August 15, 2009
Nice touch nitpicking the reply even though my post was directly below yours, Don’t worry I did it this time…
I’m indicating it would seem they only use box scores because they offered limited insight, sorry you don’t understand sarcasm and continue to defend this “analysis” saying I don’t read your posts. I didn’t “miss” your arguments. Read between the lines and stop trying to be condescending.
They offered no analysis on the type of player Elam is or projected anything about him. I can look up his numbers on nfl.com or I can actually interpret his gameplay since I work for FO since I allegedly watch every single play and chart it…..
They seemed to have no trouble showing our injured players games missed + corresponding defensive rankings, why is it an irrational request to ask for more of a breakdown on their opinions on our wildcat success? That would have impressed me, but maybe I expect to much like you suggest.
No, I haven’t read their book and this “analysis” does not motivate me to because I learned nothing about my Browns. Maybe I took some cheap shots that were somewhat unfair, but I’m not sure why its bothering you so much, do you have some sort of vested interest in FO that you want to come clean with?
Sdel_Brown - August 16, 2009
I was trying to be helpful by telling you about the reply button. Some new members don’t get it right away and it can make their responses very confusing. I tried to be nice about it so I don’t know why you got all upset. Sure, I could tell you were replying to me above, but in a longer thread with more comments it would be impossible to know who you were replying to. Don’t be so sensitive.
And I’m sorry I didn’t get your sarcasm but it wasn’t obvious to me that your comment was sarcastic. You have to understand that nobody here knows you so we’re not going to know when you’re being sarcastic and when you don’t really understand something. In the future I suggest you lay off the sarcasm if you’re on a new blog until the people know you and can tell when you’re being sarcastic, unless you make the sarcasm really obvious. I don’t know why you expected me to pick up on that.
But you still seem to be missing what I’m saying. You keep asking to see their stats on Elam, but their stats are different than anything you can look up on NFL.com or any place else. So unless you’re familiar with their stats and what they mean, it wouldn’t do you any good to see them. That’s what I was trying to explain above. This was a short interview and they knew most of the audience wouldn’t be familiar with their stats, so they mentioned that his numbers against the run and pass were “middling or worse” and left it at that.
If you don’t believe me, here you go. I copied Elam’s stats from their book and posted them below. You tell me if you know what all of that means and if they should have listed this all in their chat. (I tried to make the formatting look good so I hope it looks readable when I post it.)
Secondary Age Pos Plays TmPct Rk Stop Dfts Yds Rk St% Rk Tgts Tgt% Rk Dist Suc% Rk AdjYd Rk Yds PD Int
Abram Elam 28 SS 63 7.6% 64 18 9 7.2 43 32% 61 21 4.4% 70 11.5 50% 48 10.3 67 10.1 4 1
Does that help you? I don’t have a vested interst in FO; I honestly don’t even read them that much but I respect what they do because they’re taking a new and better approach to analyzing football stats, like the BP guys in baseball. I just don’t like when people criticize things when they don’t know what they’re talking about. As I said, if you’re really interested check out their website (which is free) or buy the book.
Finally, you seem to be a smart guy so I hope you stick around, but if you do you need to stop getting so defensive when people disagree with you. This is a place to talk football and have intelligent arguments, so you should expect people to let you know when they think you said something incorrect. You can’t take it personally and get offended. We’re all friends here and if you speak intelligently we’ll respect you.
Buckeye Brad - August 16, 2009
Well, sorry, the formatting didn’t work on those stats so they’re hard to read, but you get the idea.
Buckeye Brad - August 16, 2009
Using the reply button is pretty much a “must do” here. You’d be surprised how many people neglect the reply button and how confusing things get.
rufio - August 17, 2009
I sort of understand what you are saying. I think this is a thing where some fans already had these ideas in their head, where others might have needed “re-assurance”. Football Outsiders has a good reputation and do spend a lot of time researching these teams. However, they spent a lot of time and resources in putting together a 500+ page book, so they can’t dump everything in this Q&A for free.
I did wish some of the answers were a little more thorough though, after reading some of the other SB Nation sites that did one with them (i.e. check out Blogging the Boys).
The No. 1 thing I learned is that we did run the second most plays out of the Wildcat; I thought for sure that a few other teams had done it a few more times.
Chris Pokorny - August 15, 2009
I hear ya. I don’t think they’d sell too many books if they gave away too much for free :). It might be interesting to see all their results/analysis. I’m sure some NFL front offices would be interested in their data as well. Not sure about their Browns analysis though :).
Sdel_Brown - August 16, 2009
FO does really great work. They understand the game better than other statistically oriented analysts (KC Joyner) which prevents them from finding answers in places where there are no answers (again, KC Joyner.)
Something interesting to note is how pervasive the success rate statistic is. While Football Outsiders has gotten credit for the popularity of the stat, Jim Tressel has actually been using it since the early 90’s at YSU.
Here’s a link to a presentation he gave on the run game and how they measure success.
And here’s the relevant section:
gahnki - August 15, 2009
Does any one know, who is starting QB for the browns tonight
dohior - August 15, 2009
Brett Ratliff — I heard Mangini really likes him.
Buckeye Brad - August 15, 2009
rec Rec REC
BradyQuinnisBeast - August 15, 2009
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