Another new regular feature here at Dawgs by Nature will take a look at some of Football Outsiders' useful "innovative stats" and see how we match-up against our opponent of the week.
This week's opponent? The evil purple team from Maryland: The Baltimore Ravens. It is still widely assumed that the Ravens defense is dominant and scary, largely because Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are still cheating and killing people making most of the tackles and interceptions in Baltimore. And that the offense is led by aging WRs, a "hard-nose running game" (as opposed to the unpopular "soft-nose" running game), and an inexperienced QB. But do the facts and numbers match up with what we think we know, or what some ESPN guy told us? Let's find out.
A quick note about the stats I'm going to use in this regular column. The full explanation can be found here. Basically, Football Outsiders uses the data from every play and finds the league average (adjusting for yards gained in the redzone, touchdowns scored, and the down and distance- so a 3 yard TD run on 3rd-and-1 from the 3 means a lot more than a 3 yard run on 3rd-and-15 from your own 20.) Then it rates players and teams based on their relation to this league average. The result is meaningful rate stats. They are akin to league adjusted stats in baseball, like OPS+ and ERA+. DVOA is the most common stat they use and 0.0 is exactly league average. A 10.0% DVOA for a QB means a QB that is 10.0% better than average. -15.0% DVOA means 15% below average for a QB. For defensive numbers they are reversed, so negative numbers are better.
Got all that? No? Well, then trust me when I say, higher positive numbers are good for offensive players and lower or negative numbers are good for defenses. 0.0% is always average.
Now to the Ravens' Defense. Overall, the defense has a -5.7% DVOA, meaning they are 5-6% better than average. That number is good for 10th in the league. Solid, no doubt. But not scary. They are very average against the pass (2.2% DVOA, 12th in the league) and better against the run (-14.8%, 9th in the league). Specifically, they struggle with passes to the number 1 WR on the other team (12.6% DVOA, 26th in the league) and passes to the RB (15.6%, 24th in the league). Problem is, we don't really have a #1 WR and our RBs don't catch a lot of passes. Our best bet is probably getting the ball in the hands of Jerome Harrison through some screens and dump-offs. Harrison has a solid 75% catch rate (catching 18 of 24 targets) and while he has only turned those targets into 111 yards, we know that he has the speed to break one at any time.
How bout the offense of the fightin' Satans Modells? Well, they are really freaking efficient. Even after a bad game against the Bengals, they rank 6th in Offensive efficiency with a 21.2% DVOA. They are 11th in passing efficiency, but the 3 headed monster at RB of Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le'Ron McClain are thrashing defenses. They rank 3rd in rushing efficiency. In fact, Ray Rice is the best back in the league this year on a per play basis (29.1% DVOA) thanks, in part to 5 TDs and a cool 5.3 YPC. This could spell doom for our defense. As much as I have liked what I have seen from Rob Ryan's unit, they really have struggled. (Overall we are 29th in defensive efficiency with a DVOA of 18.2%). Especially against the run, where we are 30th in adjusted-DVOA 15.0%. Now that we are down two of our best tacklers and the center of our defense in Eric Barton and D'Qwell Jackson, things could really get ugly. So look for the Ravens to run the ball down our throats. That said, they were equally as successful through the air and actually passed more in our first match-up.
As you could have probably guessed, if we have any shot in this game, it is because of our special teams. We are first overall in Special Teams (with a 10.9 DVOA). Each of our special teams units are above average, but it is our punt returns that have separated us from the league this year with a league-leading 12.8 DVOA. This matches up well with Baltimore. Their average Special Teams unit is particularly bad at punting/punt coverage (-4.4% DVOA). Their best ST unit is the kick off coverage. So if you are looking for a big Joshua Cribbs return, you better hope we can force some punts.
Of course, this all doesn't look very good. By the numbers, the Ravens are a little better than I thought. On the other hand, they are unsurprisingly number 1 on the spectrum of evil. Maybe the forces of good, with a little help by Josh Cribbs and the Special teams can shock the world.
Hope you enjoyed my first official post.
2 recs | 75 comments
I prefer the immeasurables heart, talent and dedication.
mooncamping - November 12, 2009
Yeah, but the facts can’t hurt a football discussion, can it?
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
They´re not numbers, they´re variables. And that´s the point, they assume the numbers are variables, and thus affectable. What do they want to do, reverse engineer success?
It´s like the nerds running the athletes.
mooncamping - November 12, 2009
You see, I have no delusion that my efforts on a sports blog will do anything to the actual gameplan of the coaching staff or the players.
So it is more like the nerds commenting on what the athletes are doing and have done and are likely to do. (which is pretty much what we are doing here on the internets). And I think the numbers are a very objective and interesting component of this dialogue. I’m sorry that you do not agree.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
You really think ignoring content is an art form, don´t you?
mooncamping - November 12, 2009
Its pretty impolite to trash the hard work others have done for your enjoyment and thoughtful debate, and to do so without really making any sense at all.
Its his first front-page post man, at least make some sense, or even continue making nonsense in a polite way.
rufio - November 12, 2009
rufio, take your highminded, snobish, condescending comments somewhere else. Your bad pedagogical approach towards intelligent posts, is sad.
mooncamping - November 13, 2009
flagged for continued trolling and disrespect.
your act is tired, chief. take it elsewhere.
rolub - November 13, 2009
Tell the KGB! Or whatever other organisation apart from your parents that has warped your thinking.
mooncamping - November 13, 2009
Thanks for that.
I really wasn’t trying to “teach” anything. I was trying to get you to not be such a jerk to Mr. Kelsey. He clearly worked hard on what appears to be a very promising column. He even responded to your initial comment in a way that respected you and genuinely asked him a question, and you responded by not making sense in a confrontational, disrespectful way. Twice.
That’s pretty rude, moon.
rufio - November 13, 2009
Point taken.
I´ll try to be more careful in the future.
Good luck with your statistical approach Ryan Kelsey!
mooncamping - November 14, 2009
You talk about ‘ignoring content’ and then speak of ‘immeasurables.’
Oh-kaaay.
johnnyphoenix - November 12, 2009
OOoooooooooo-Kaaaaaaaaayyyyy. Helloooooooooooooooooooooo…
mooncamping - November 13, 2009
Mooncamping? Can I introduce you to my friend MaLor. He’s over at the Beatdown waiting to debate.
raven - November 16, 2009
Good first post man, I didn’t know you were going to do a segment. I feel like I must change my screenname to my actual name now because you changed yours from DD and Chris uses his own name. Should I make the change?
And I agree. The Ravens have taken over the #1 spot of evil from the Steelers.
SpecialBrownie - November 12, 2009
Thanks.
You don’t need to change your name. I just did because I made up DaytonDogg several years ago and it was very outdated. I no longer live in Dayton and since I was going to be posting full articles, I wanted something more honest.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
This may surprise you, but this is my real name and photo.
Roger Dorn - November 12, 2009
If you would tell me your name or look was any different… it would shake my faith in everything of this world.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
I didn’t even know changing your screen name could be done, DD. Anyway, nice post. My only suggestion would be to limit your interaction with the guy who does the mooncamping schtick.
I have to admit, I felt better about this game until reading your post. I knew this wasn’t the old Dilfer-led Ravens offense, but it’s even better than I thought.
dgcambridge - November 12, 2009
unfortunately, i don’t believe it to be a schtick. i fear mooncamping is a genuine crazy person.
Dawg Nuts - November 12, 2009
I fear you are correct. Not in a “look over my shoulder when I’m walking down a dark alley” fear, more of a “I just got to the register and I don’t think I have enough cash on me” fear.
Chief WaDrew - November 12, 2009
I don’t think it can be done easily. Chris pulled some strings upon my request.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
Oh, I was confused on that also. And it would make me feel more honest but I don’t want to push Chris anymore than he needs to be pushed by us new posters.
SpecialBrownie - November 12, 2009
This is awesome.
Bernie19Kosar - November 12, 2009
Let’s make no mistake about it – the Steelers are #2 with a bullet on the spectrum of evil.
woodsmeister - November 12, 2009
Love it!
Shame & Irony that Football Outsiders are now ESPN football insiders. But their analysis is beyond compare. Not sure I’ll have the strength to buy the annual next year unless our season really goes up the launch ramp.
LondonBrown - November 12, 2009
Ray..we’re used to it but Ed is a smart player and doesn’t cheat. Well, he does cheat on routes and gets our DB’s in a bind.
raven - November 16, 2009
Good to see someone taking the reins with an FO-inspired segment.
rolub - November 12, 2009
Couldn’t agree more. I’m going to look forward to this post weekly.
Great work, Ryan.
danvail - November 12, 2009
Interesting stuff, good post, I hadn’t heard bout these newfangled stats, will you be doing this each week with our opponent?
Red-Right-88 - November 12, 2009
I’m going to try. I’m by no means well-versed in these stats, but I have been reading a little of Football Outsiders’ stuff for a couple years.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
I think a weekly comparison of FO stats is a great preview and may give us a good idea heading into games where the team should focus and try and win. The Harrison example is the kind of thing as fans that we should be expecting to see if we want a good gameplan. My feeling says that we don’t give him the ball enough.
Roger Dorn - November 12, 2009
Yes, I would like that as well. I don’t read FO very much but I’d like to hear more about their work.
Buckeye Brad - November 12, 2009
I would like to hear about matchups as well. I honestly like the stats and how they match up against thier opponents. good job and good info.
holmes213 - November 12, 2009
So, how can a first installment be called a regular installment – the first of anything is the height of SSSS.
Anyway, I look forward to this becoming very regular. It’s a great overview and helps me think of what to look for and why. All of these numbers and analytical output is highly variable – heck, if BQ took the last several weeks to get fitted with a new cape many of these numbers will be invalid come Monday night. A fan can only hope…
Spidey - November 12, 2009 via mobile
You are right, it is not regular yet. There is a mere expectation of regularity.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
Just giving you a little hard time to avoid getting a big head. As a first article, it’s really good and lives up to the standards I expect on our (Cleveland) SB sites. As Cleveland fans, we at least have LGT, DBN, and FTS going for us.
Spidey - November 12, 2009 via mobile
Not to be too repetitive, but kudos on a great first post. I really like this idea, and will enjoy learning more about our opponents. I think you presented the information well, and I like how you tied the stats into the development of a potential game plan. I’ll certainly be watching for those screens to Harrison on Monday night.
Nat - November 12, 2009
I don’t know if we should get too excited about screens to Harrison yet. While not well-versed enough to cite the specifics, I’m thinking that a good screen is going to rely on how well the WRs play their part, and I’m not sure that our rookies are up to the task. (Though I can certainly picture Cribbs throwing his body into the fray.)
JustBob - November 12, 2009
Very nice report, DDogg.
The 5-7 kick returns per game and all the failed third down convertions really helps our ELITE Special Teams unit! YAY!!
Brownie's Year - November 12, 2009
Thanks for the kind words- I really do hope to keep this up and get deeper into these concepts and numbers. In response to some of the critiques or concerns:
There is a big caveat to this and any statistical analysis that is used as a predictive tool: context. At heart, I am very skeptical of the predictive power of statistics. By no means am I a math guy or a statistician. But as my understanding of “newer” advanced baseball metrics and statistical analysis has grown, I have learned how to use numbers to complement and enhance my understanding of the game. And I am fascinated by the potential of that approach to football. Football Outsiders has taken great strides to this end, and my goal is to build off of their foundation and add a Browns-centric, advanced statistical analysis to the football discussion.
Some of the numbers used here are weighted towards the most recent weeks in an effort to better represent how a team is playing NOW, versus the first few weeks of the season. These stats do a better job than others in normalizing things like strength of schedule and less meaningful yards. But an injury here, an improvement or adjustment there, and a couple of benchings, and the statistical analysis becomes a little less useful, unless you can keep these contextual issues in mind. Also, stats are a little less insightful in football than in baseball. The sample sizes are smaller and the skills and abilities for a football player is more difficult to boil down to a couple numbers.
In no way do I think this analysis can replace good X and O, rufio-style analysis or other, more traditional football conversation. I only intend to add this to the existing dialogue and provide another way to look at how our team is doing and how it matches up with our opponents.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
Rufio-style analysis has gotten us to 1-7. I say it’s time for a regime change!!! /sarc
Spidey - November 12, 2009 via mobile
Ouch. I admit that putting BQiB on a bus for 10 hours so he could volunteer at my football camp was a mistake, but I am trying to improve the character of our guys and to show them how to be pros.
rufio - November 12, 2009
He’s been having an identity crisis ever since.
Roger Dorn - November 12, 2009
You ain’t kiddin’.
BradyQuinnisBeast - November 12, 2009
Did you move our mural?
Bernie19Kosar - November 12, 2009
By the way, I have heard that rufio is working out a trade to send me to another blog for ‘X’ number of special team players
TheRealSlimShady - November 12, 2009
Exactly my thoughts. DVOA and DYAR will never (and should never) completely replace Xs and Os, just as OPS+, FIP, etc. should never completely replace traditional baseball scouting. But ignoring the “new-age” stats and relying on wins for pitchers/quarterbacks is not going to help you understand the big picture.
rolub - November 12, 2009
You know I’m a stat kind of guy. I really like the FO stuff. But is DVOA predictive in the sense that you might be able to divine the outcome of a given game? That could be easily analyzed. My guess would be that looking at these would not predict upsets but would validate favorites. The tricky games would still be tricky (those with no obvious differences or off-setting differences in DVOAs on defense and offense). Thanks for taking the time to do this. It will be a welcome addition to an already great place to be.
Brownsyup - November 12, 2009
for what it’s worth, FO’s premium content includes straight picks of the games, as well as against the spread, divided into 3 different levels of confidence. based on the lines and my knowledge of FO’s admitted biases, I can usually tell which are going to be their picks with the strongest confidence.
Prior to week 9, their straight up picks were 75-41 (.647), while their ATS picks were struggling at 55-60-1 (.478). 2008’s record was .665 straight up and .537 ATS.
rolub - November 12, 2009
A friend of mine and I are doing a joint pickem for fun in yahoo against the spread. Our current record is 72-56.
Roger Dorn - November 12, 2009
I do believe Chris is destroying FO in straight up picks.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
I like this analysis, DD. I’ve missed this sort of thing since the Mistake By the Lake Sporting Times stopped doing it regularly.
Chemo - November 12, 2009
Yeah, I used to read Mistake By the Lake Sporting Times, and the Rubin brothers deserve a shout-out for influencing this idea. Actually, before I proposed this idea to Chris, I made sure they weren’t still doing it.
Ryan Kelsey - November 12, 2009
If the Rubins have “semi-retired”, maybe you guys should recruit them for guest spots here. They often had some hilarious takes on Cleveland sports on MBTLST.
talonk - November 12, 2009
I hope they come out of semi-retirement to celebrate LeBron Day. That’s my favorite.
woodsmeister - November 12, 2009
we only let rice run 12 times against the bengals (about 8 catches though). cam is jeckle and hide with the run game (mcgahee and mcclaine hardly touch the ball this year). when we get behind cam gets rattled and flacco presses. our game plan last week was horrible.
cam has a bad tendency to throw deep just as rice gets the momentum swinging our way. very frustrating when you nickle and dime your way all the way down field and the O-Coord. gets cute and airs it out. waste of down and driver killer. happened all day against the bengals. not surprised if you take this one. we are very down and the fans are majorly disappointed.
just send cribbs out deep in the passing game. he’ll get held by our DB’s or be wide open. his choice. i think brady will come out chuckin it. i see a bomb on your first play from scrimmage. their going to let him get the rust off early. nothing to lose. advantage browns. ravens 1-5 on the road on MNF. 4-7 overall. yuck.
raven - November 12, 2009
I would love to see Quinn throw a deep pass from a naked bootleg to start the game.
Cribbs hasn’t been doing a whole lot for us at WR recently. And I would be surprised if we won this game, regardless of how you guys are playing right now.
rufio - November 12, 2009
i bet Quinn airs it out on the first play. it will fall harmlessly to the turf but send a valuable message.
raven - November 16, 2009
Hard to believe Ravens fans have that attitude when the team is 10.5-point favorite.
Spidey - November 12, 2009
i’m picking against my team this week. i understand the way the ravens rollercoaster through their seasons. this is perfect timing for the Browns. the national spotlight makes most everyone play at a higher level. i think this same light will make us tense because we are supposed to win. what a trap game. this could be our knockout blow. remember how you had us on the ropes last year before the dropped deep ball handed us the win. we are worse than last year….and you got rid of the dropper.
raven - November 16, 2009
jeckle and hide?
lulz
johnnyphoenix - November 13, 2009
Great post.
Ray Rice scares the hell out of me.
Bernie19Kosar - November 12, 2009
He made McClain cry once. I saw it,
SpecialBrownie - November 12, 2009
I’ve got him on my fantasy team. So it’s a
win – winlose – lose scenario. Damn, I’d say it’s a paradox, but nope just a lose – lose.Simmsinns - November 12, 2009
All my fantasy teams are Ravens-free zones. It is not worth winning a few bucks if I have to lose my immortal soul by rooting for the spawn of Satan.
woodsmeister - November 13, 2009
I don’t think I have had a Raven in fantasy my entire life.
Roger Dorn - November 15, 2009
Ray Rice is special but the coaching love factor for him has kept McGahee and McClaine in the cold.
raven - November 16, 2009
I like McClain a lot.
golanbatrac - November 16, 2009
Joe Posnanski:
I love Joe.
Ryan Kelsey - November 13, 2009
Haha, that’s great. He’s fantastic, and I don’t know how anyone can complain that he’s not a Cleveland fan.
Buckeye Brad - November 13, 2009
Link?
woodsmeister - November 13, 2009
Asked and answered
woodsmeister - November 13, 2009
Sorry to chime in late, but this is a terrific “first post”. After I got over thinking “who the bleep is Ryan Kelsey?”, I enjoyed the whole thing, and especially your sense of humor.
drjeo - November 13, 2009
I didn’t know who Ryan was either until I saw his lil’ doggie pic.
Brownie's Year - November 13, 2009
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